Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. So, Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI? Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are also in the process of drawing new congressional districts after accusations of partisan gerrymandering. Oklahoma has five congressional districts ranging from R+10 to R+27. Quite a few people people had a hard time believing my explanation of the math behind the PVI. Because nobody knows nor much cares who these candidates are, they get votes because of their party line, not as individuals. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. In the meantime, some have suggested computing an SVI a Swing State Project Voting Index, comparing 2004 to 2004 and 2008 to 2008. i guess i can see the appeal for cook and maybe others in that the 00 and 04 national elections were close to 50-50, therefore you almost removed a complex variable and you can just say if they voted 60% for GOP in 00 and 04 then they are GOP +20. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. I really don't understand that stereotype that the rich ALL universally vote for the Republicans. These states include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["DFSft"]={},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":421,"300":400,"400":400,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-DFSft"),window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("DFSft"==b)window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); Cook's 2017 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2016 election cycle:[6][14], Cook's 2013 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2012 election cycle:[4]. Perhaps lower-profile statewide offices may be useful. This isnt as big of a deal with the two Bush elections because they were both so close, but comparing Kerrys 2004 district numbers with Obamas nationwide numbers produces some pretty serious gaps. Either way, PVI or SVI, you get a nice take on whether party nominee is overachieving or under-performing in comparison to the top of his/her ticket. Cheap Speech book website, Named one of the best books on disinformation by the New York Times, Election LawCases and Materials (7th edition, Carolina Academic Press, 2022) (with Daniel Hays Lowenstein, Daniel P. Tokaji, and Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos), Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to American Democracy (Yale University Press, 2020), Legislation, Statutory Interpretation, and Election Law: Examples & Explanations (2d ed. I know this community is fully capable of completing such a thorough analysis. I live in a house thats over 40 years old that was constructed on somewhat marshy soil. Democratic support also comes from the areas around major cities. [4]. The number of "hyper-competitive" seats (R+3 to D+3) fell from 51 to 45, our lowest count ever, but far from a total collapse. The Cook Partisan Voting Index of Congressional District 13, which includes Oakland and Berkeley, is D+40, making it the most Democratic congressional district in California and the fourth most Democratic district in the US. Ideally, there should be a way of finding this out. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington's foremost political handicapper. Leftblogistan needs to be a thought leader, not just a bunch of people typing away from their parents basements. Before that, we go all the way back to 1964 for us and 1972 for them. (I guess I randomly grabbed that number because Ive been thinking about NY-20.) December 1, 2020 by Andy Jackson. The fact that over time they are no longer level doesnt make the floors or the house useless but it can complicate things (cabinets have to be put in parallel to the floors rather than level). Political statistical exponent. Look at 538- Nate didnt get so much play by tagging along with the half-assed analyses already in use. KS-Sen: Sebelius up double digits over either Moran or Tiahrt, The Swing State Project Is Now Daily Kos Elections. In the wake of the 2008 elections, SSPs pres-by-CD project has spurred a lot of discussion about how the PVI is calculated and why its calculated the way it is. Obama MAY be able to improve for 2012 if he does really well, but this may be a once in a half-generation sorta thing. Expect to see President Trump and his Democratic opponents spending lots of time in these states between now and November 2020. How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, How to Keep the Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning Our Democracy, North Carolina Republicans Ask SCOTUS To Decimate Voting Rights in Every State, What Democrats Need From Mitch McConnell to Make an Election Reform Deal Worth It, No One is Coming to Save Us from the Dagger at the Throat of America,, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4218256, Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and Stolen Elections in the Contemporary United States, https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/epdf/10.1089/elj.2021.0050, Optimism and Despair About a 2020 Election Meltdown and Beyond, Three Pathologies of American Voting Rights Illuminated by the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How to Treat and Cure Them, Networking the Party: First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive Party Government, A Reasonable Bias Approach to Gerrymandering: Using Automated Plan Generation to Evaluate Redistricting Proposals, Requiring Majority Winners for Congressional Elections: Harnessing Federalism to Combat Extremism, Failed Elections and the Legislative Selection of Electors, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result. What we need is a way to estimate a sort of generic D vs. R matchup for each district (or state, or state senate/house district, or county, or town, or even precinct). Include the PVI in brackets afterward, but SVI just seems to make more sense. Read more about this topic: Cook Partisan Voting Index, List of PVIs, Mine was, as it were, the connecting link between wild and cultivated fields; as some states are civilized, and others half-civilized, and others savage or barbarous, so my field was, though not in a bad sense, a half-cultivated field. Then everyone will see which system proves the more accurate. The PVI assigns a numeric score to each U.S. congressional district based on how it performed in the previous election compared to the country as a whole. House Map - Election Results 2010 - The New York Times, http://www.electiondataservices.com/r09wTables.pdf, Meat processing & products: Long-Term Contribution Trends | OpenSecrets. All Rights Reserved. SVI will average to 0, and PVI will not. University of Wisconsin Law SchoolView posts , Vice Dean for Faculty I think the SVI is better. Franita Tolson and Edward Foley. Basing the PVI on the Presidential vote is quick and dirty, and standardized because not every state elects an Auditor or whatever. (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. Like with investments, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. KISS. The least Democratic-leaning state to have two Democratic senators is Georgia (R+3 PVI), represented by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. Something like what Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame. Im willing to convert to using the SVI exclusively. 2020-23, GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper No. The Cook Partisan Voting Index is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican P. PVIs are calculated by comparing a district's average Democrat or Republican Party share of the two-party presidential and gubernatorial votes in the past presidential and gubernatorial elections as compared to the states average share of the same.The statewide average in 2012 was approximately 54.57% Democrat to 45.43% Republican.For example, in Washingtons 43rd Legislative District, Democrat candidates won an average 85.85% of the two-party share in the 2012 presidential and gubernatorial elections, respectively.Comparing the average of those two results (85.85%) against the average statewide share of the same (54.57%), the district voted approximately 31 percentage points more Democrat, or D+31. if you have a national election 0f 53-46 then the calculation becomes harder, but thats no excuse for sloppiness. (Foundation Press, 2022) by Samuel Issacharoff, Pamela S. Karlan, Richard H. Pildes, Nathaniel Persily, and Franita Tolson, Election Law in a Nutshell (2d ed., West Academic Publishing, 2017) That's rendered recent election results a better indicator of how a state or district will vote in the future, and "ancestral" partisan performance of less but still some value. [4] As of 2022[update], in the House, there are 222 districts more Republican than the national average, and 206 districts more Democratic than the national average. And dont forget that people undervotenot all presidential, gubernatorial, senate, or other statewide office votes will include votes for Representative, State Senator/Representative, etc.. Colorado would decide the election, resulting in a 272-266 Democratic win or a 275-263 Republican win. Putting them side by side gives us a quick take on short and medium-term trends. These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. This chart provides a spectrum that analyzes the competitiveness or vulnerability of partisan political districts and subdivisions each cycle. Where the SVI number is more D than the PVI we see fertile ground. Cook Partisan Voting Index - List of PVIs - By State | Technology Trends Cook Partisan Voting Index - List of PVIs - By State By State The PVIs for states are calculated based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election. i read recently that if the electorate was the same as it was in 1992, McCain would have won easily, but because of larger numbers of young people and people of color it was a whole different story. The PVI value is calculated by a comparison of the district average for the party nominee, compared to the 2004 national value for the party nominee. For this thread, I will be using the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which measures by district, how far each district votes for a Democrat or how far each district votes for a Republican, then does it on a state by state level, then on a country level. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the CPI compares the political leanings of voters in each state House and Senate district with the partisan voting tendencies of the state as a whole. [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. A district with a 2004 Cook PVI of D+1 or D+2 district is actually a Republican district, since Bush won by just over 2% nationally. Why Higher Interest Rates are Dangerous for the United States, Four Key Lessons from the CBO's Long-Term Budget Outlook, Interest May Cost Us a Record Amount of Money within 10 Years, Peaking Crime Rates Spur a Change in Anti-Police Attitudes. Think of all the different districts that clock in at (old PVI of) R+3. and Academic Affairs and With the SVI (or Cooks PVI not including 2004), these districts would be R+5 and R+13, respectively, and we would be a center-right nation. PVI tells us which districts flow with the tides and which are stubbornly resistant. For example, we could try to average out the performance of candidates to that seat in the past, but seeing as we are trying to gauge exactly that, this would be a wolf-guarding-the-sheep situation. Another method is to compare to results up and down the ballot. . A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. Another option would be to average the House, Senate, and Presidential numbers, so we dont rely exclusively on the Presidential race to define a districts lean. Im prepared to be enlightened! Cook,Partisan,Voting,IndexThe,Cook,Partisan,Voting,Index,,also,called,PVI,,is,a,measurement,of,how,strongly,a,United,States,congressional,district,or,state,l. More than two-thirds of Californias 53 congressional districts lean Democratic, as do those in the southern half of Texas and the eastern coasts of Oregon and Washington. July 13, 2022, 7:27 am redistricting Dan Tokaji. Edward B. Foley, Requiring Majority Winners for Congressional Elections: Harnessing Federalism to Combat Extremism (May 10, 2021). The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. If a district performed within half a point of the national average in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN. So in that I do disagree with those who think Swing State analysis should be based on the industry standard rather than the most accurate in the industry. Cook provided the following explanation of a sample PVI in its 2017 PVI summary: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r

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